The Problem with Voting in N.B

With the N.B Provincial election safely in the rearview, this seems as apt a time as any to reflect upon our civic obligations. Although, a few key facts elucidated by the province’s recent polls are well worth noting: (1) this is a two-party province in a two-party country, (2) less than two thirds of eligible New Brunswickers vote, and (3) if only 66% of people voted then Susan Holt’s Liberals with their 48.2% vote share are representative of 31% of the vox populi.  

Now, of course, that third point is no jab at Premier Holt, she actually outdid the Tories 2020 performance who only secured 25.74% of the overall eligible electorate. All of that to say that it seems to be a select minority of New Brunswick’s constituents that decides who sits in Fredericton. 

And of course, this minority can only vote with the majority. Under New Brunswick’s First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) voting system, candidates that do not receive the majority of votes in their riding lose the election. While this may all seem well and good in theory, what it amounts to in practice is that fledgling political parties whose voter base is dispersed throughout multiple ridings or that perform well but fall short by a few votes lose out.  

This makes it practically impossible for small parties to gain a foothold in the electorate while big parties dominate with their perpetual stream of established voters. Knowing this, voters tend to vote strategically and are much less likely to vote for parties that they know statistically do not stand a chance in the electorate, even if that party is more representative of their beliefs. In this way, it is winner takes all in New Brunswick politics and there are no participation trophies. 

What This Means for N.B Voters

These repetitious little wins for the status quo represent big losses for the New Brunswick voter. With political parties needing to appeal to a broad spectrum of the population to potentially form government, political parties are incentivized to emphasize not actual policy objectives in their campaigning, but rather catch-all messaging that appeals to as many people as possible.  

While this may not be a problem for the political centrist, such campaign practices are alienating for more partisan voters who know their vote is just a drop in the bucket on election day. As noted by scholar Maurice Duverger, this system of single-member-district voting tends to favour a two-party system as has proved true in the case of the U.S and Canada. Under such conditions, more niche political perspectives rarely, if ever, receive any meaningful form of representation in government. 

When you look at the statistics, this truth is self-evident. In this year’s provincial election, the Green Party received 13.8% of the popular vote and only 4% of the seats in the legislative assembly. Similarly, the New Democratic Party cinched 1.3% of the popular vote, but did not even get a seat at the table.  

What this means for voters of these parties is that in effect, their vote is null and void since it had no affect on who was chosen to represent them in Fredericton. For a province that is quick to quarrel over equitability of representation, such a voting system is seemingly less than representative. 

Why Nothing Has Been Done

And this is not the first time that this has been noted. As early as the 1987 NB provincial election, it was observed that our voting system may need serious reform with Richard Hatfield’s Conservatives receiving 30% of the popular vote and somehow not a single seat.  

Building on this, the New Brunswick Commission on Legislative Democracy found in 2005 that mixed-member proportional (MMP) representation was the best option for New Brunswick voters, not FPTP. While then-Premier Bernard Lord promised to hold a referendum to decide whether to transition to MMP, his government fell before he ever had the chance, and the issue has not been a mainstream provincial concern since. 

Why? Well, as Professor of History & Politics J.P Lewis wrote back in 2015: “Since most modern Canadian first ministers have led centrist or brokerage parties that benefit from the vote-to-seat calculations of plurality electoral systems, there is little gain seen in switching.” So, in essence, the people in power simply have no incentive to care and thus nothing has been done. The current unrepresentative system that FPTP fosters actually favours them which gives them more reason to keep things as they are than consider change. 

What Should Be Done

So, then, why do we as New Brunswickers vote at all? If voting in New Brunswick is as unrepresentative as it seems to be and if politicians are doing nothing to change or improve it, why vote? Well, civic duty – right? The need to make your voice heard? Much like peace, order, and good government, these are at best lies ingrained in us to keep us compliant.  

If you think that the obligations of the state to its citizens outweigh the obligations of citizens to their state, civic duty should not factor into the equation. Above all else, democratic governments have an obligation to ensure the representation of the popular vote and if this is not happening as it seems to be, the government is not democratic. In the case of New Brunswick, it seems our system is at best oligarchical with the small percentage of the population that votes for the winner of the two central parties being the only voice represented. 

On that note, it is also apparent that your voice will not be heard outside of the voting booth. Matter of fact, it may be no better than yelling in the wind. As your vote travels from the ballot box to the returning office, it becomes one of a torrent of individual voices that are all deafened by the only slightly louder voice in the room: that one of the two central parties with just enough votes. 

With both of these arguments dissolved, if you do vote – your vote serves to do nothing more than maintain the status quo. In effect, by voting, you encourage politicians to continue with FPTP and their two-party system rather than seriously consider reform due to low electoral engagement. Conversely, if you do not vote, your abstention signifies a dissatisfaction with the status quo which in theory could either (a) incentivize politicians to consider electoral reform or (b) exacerbate the situation so, an increasingly small portion of the population gets to decide who forms government in Fredericton. If B, then the system persists as is. If A, then the politics of New Brunswick will become more representative of the individual voices of Canadians than ever before. 

This means that voting or not voting in and of itself is a political choice all on its own. It is an indication not just of your partisanship, but more so of your willingness to participate with the perpetuation of society as is. The act of voting highlights your comfortability with the notion that someone with less than an absolute majority of the people’s support can control the people. If this is something New Brunswickers support than so be it: a hundred more years of red and blue will follow. But if not, this is why New Brunswickers should not vote.