Like a dog with a bone, President Trump doesn’t compromise when it comes to getting what he wants, but he sure does bite. Since his inauguration ceremony two weeks ago, it seems other world leaders have been doing nothing but getting nipped.

Imposing tariffs on Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese trade goods is all apart of the art of the deal to ensure American supremacy for Trump. However, while the threat of these tariffs may improve his negotiating position at home, they have done little for his popularity abroad and some wonder if Trump will soon start to feel the heat.

With Canada and Mexico now threatening to launch counter-tariffs on American exports and China promising to act in kind, the global stock market is bracing for impact, and many investors are running scared. If this trade war happens, as many expect it will, the average American will likely be hit hardest as the prices for essential goods skyrocket. Having promised to increase the wealth of Americans, some could see this as him reneging on a campaign promise. So, if push comes to shove, how far can Trump’s tariffs take the United States?

Marckinson Pierre, Leah Millis/Reuters

Even though Trump seems assured that America can survive without the support of foreign industry, experts are less certain. Simon Johnson, 2024 winner of the Nobel Prize for Economics, said in an interview that: “This is just a really bad idea … It’s just a matter of arithmetic, there’s no complicated economics. If you raise the price of imported goods, there’s a hit to the incomes of all Americans, but more to lower-income Americans.”

With inflation already climbing in the U.S, it seems middle and lower-class Americans will be squeezed hardest – two of Trump and the GOP’s key demographics. If the U.S cannot avoid a trade war with Canada and Mexico on favourable terms in the near future, voters are unlikely to forget this come mid-term elections.

Although, tariffs have also proven to be a powerful bargaining tool for the Trump administration in the past and present. Under the previous administration, they helped the U.S to supplant the North American Free Trade Agreement with CUSMA – a deal that Trump now also wants to renegotiate. More recently, the threat of tariffs has also cowed Colombia into accepting deported migrants from the U.S as part of Trump’s clampdown on illegal migration.

The mere threat of economic sanction by the U.S thus seems to be enough to send a chill down the spine of any savvy politician so, knowing Trump, this likely will not be the last time he pulls this trick out of the playbook. In fact, one would not be surprised if his last term in office was marked by these sort of bold bargaining strategies, eclipsing even the aggressiveness of the international diplomacy of his first term.

INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS TIMES / R. GHOSH

Although, granted that the deployment of tariffs has been effective in the short-term for the U.S, the Canadian and Mexican governments are dug in, and their counter tariffs could have an equally effective influence on the U.S economy. So, of course, the longer a trade war goes on, the more both sides bleed and with that, the more the average American suffers.

For that reason, it seems doubtful that even as stubborn as Trump is that the tariffs will actually be deployed. If they do, economists speculate that Canada and Mexico could suffer a major recession that would have a ripple effect on the global economy. This being a zero-sum outcome for all parties; the U.S will hopefully see the light.